Will Amazon’s Echo Buds challenge Apple’s Airpods?

In the five and a half years since I coined the term “Hearables” the market has grown at an amazing rate.  At the time I estimated that the market for the things we put in our ears might grow to $7.6 billion in 2018.  I think it just nudged over that to reach $7.8 billion.  What I hadn’t anticipated was the success of Apple’s Airpods, which are driving adoption even faster, more or less doubling their sales volume every year.  With the recent launch of Amazon’s Echo Buds, which could attract a new audience with the promise of a life which is “Always Alexa”, as well as the availability of a growing number of Bluetooth enabled hearing aids, the market looks as if it could reach $22 billion in 2020.

Hearables had a slow start.  Although Apple probably started its Airpod design project as far back as 2013, the first thing that the public saw was Bragi’s Kickstarter campaign for their Dash earbuds.  In March 2014, the Dash became famous as the most heavily funded Kickstarter project, raising $3.4 million.  Another crowdfunded startup – Earin, beat them to market by a few months, but Bragi eventually got the Dash out in February 2016.  In that first year of hearables, (or the first fifty-one weeks, as Apple finally started shipping Airpods in the last week of the year), global shipments from all manufacturers were probably not much more than 100,000 units, most of which were the early MFI compliant Bluetooth hearing aids.  In that last week of 2016, Apple probably sold more Airpods than the rest of the industry had shipped through the course of the year.  Four years on from that humble start, 2019 will probably see 75 million sets of hearables shipped.  That makes hearables the fastest growing tech product ever.

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Hearing Loss takes the Stage in Edinburgh

The Edinburgh Fringe Festival is the largest in the world, with around 2,500 different performances taking place each day.  It attracts hundreds of thousands of visitors over the course of three weeks, sells almost three million tickets and showcases some of the best performances from around the world.  It also seems to attract the world’s worst sound technicians, who think that volume is the only thing that matters.  So it was refreshing to find a couple of shows this year which highlighted the issues of hearing loss.  Around a quarter of us will experience hearing loss during our lives, so it is important that people become more aware of how to protect their hearing, as well as understanding the consequences of hearing loss and for society to remove the stigma of wearing hearing aids. 

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Forget 5G and the IoT – MWC 2019 was all about audio

Mobile World Congress is an odd event.  It’s where the GSMA attempts to set the mobile agenda for the coming year, where major infrastructure deals are done behind closed doors and where the rest of the industry shows off its latest products.  This year, the big message was that 5G is coming, whatever that may be.  The IoT was relegated to something that’s mainly happening in China and the startup community.  What I found interesting was that audio was far more prominent than I can recall in any of the last 30 years of MWC and its predecessor shows.

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What’s next for AirPods?

There’s growing speculation that Apple will be launching their next generation of AirPods sometime this year, so I thought it would be interesting to try to predict what might be in their next generation of earbuds.  The hearables market is moving very quickly and there’s no shortage of technology for Apple to choose from.  But the AirPods are a little different to anything else that Apple has ever brought to market.

The biggest difference is the way it has changed their development model.  Historically, Apple is a follower.  They don’t invent product categories – they wait for other major companies to create the market, then come in with a slicker product which delights customers.  They concentrate on everything which is needed for people to feel that Apple invented the experience.  After that, they create clear water between themselves and their competitors by constantly increasing the level of delight.  The AirPod is arguably the first product where Apple have made the market themselves.  There was a smattering of crowdfunded earbuds before the AirPods were announced, but they were only shipping in tens of thousands.  In contrast, AirPods are shipping in the millions.   For once, Apple wasn’t competing with established industry giants, but small, often poorly funded startups.  That’s what makes the question of what might be in an AirPod 2 or AirPod 3 so interesting.

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Hearables. A Lust for Translation

And lo, they spake in many tongues.  And verily, some of them even began to ship.

So beginneth the first chapter in the Book of Hearables.  We have reached the point where you can buy a device that you put in your ear, which can translate what someone is saying to you in another language in real time.  After several years of marketing and hype, consumers are suddenly spoilt for choice, with Waverly’s Pilot, Mymanu’s Clik and Google’s Pixel Buds all appearing within a few weeks of each other.  It’s Google recent announcement which has caught the public imagination, but that’s mainly a result of the scale of their marketing machine.  With less media attention, other startup companies have been quietly beavering away, mostly in the crowdfunded arena.

Anyone who’s been following the evolution of earbuds over the last few years will have been aware of the trend.  After Bragi invented the hearable category with their Dash earbuds, others started to experiment with different features and applications, looking for ways to make the things we stick in our ears do more exciting things than just play music.  A startup called Waverly Labs was the first to concentrate on translation, back in June 2016, when they launched a campaign on Indiegogo for their Pilot earpieces, which promised to translate between five languages – English, Spanish, French, Italian and Portuguese.  Others weren’t far behind, with Doppler (sadly deceased), Mymanu, Human, Inspear, Bragi, Lingmo, TimeKettle and a host of others joining in the race to wean us off Spotify and Pandora and start us talking to our fellow mortals.  (Although if we’d rather listen to music than talk to people who speak the same language, it’s questionable whether there’s a massive market in wanting to talk to those who don’t.)

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Hearables sales could reach $45 billion in 2020

Back in 2014, when I reviewed the emerging wearables market, I suggested that the sector with the greatest potential would be hearables.  Over the intervening two years it has seen intense activity.  Over $45 million has been pledged in crowdfunding campaigns for earbuds and stereo headphones from almost a quarter a million backers.  The value of sales of wireless headsets has overtaken that of wired headsets and now Apple has added momentum by removing the 3.5mm jack on the iPhone 7, as well as launching their own earbud – the Airpod.

One of the key reasons hearables are doing so well compared to other wearable sectors is because they don’t need to work out what to do with the data they generate.  Every other wearable is a slave to the treadmill of quantitative feedback, where it needs to make the data it produces compelling, or else risk being consigned to the drawer of doom.  Hearables are bought for consuming existing content in the form of music or videos, giving apps developers much more time and freedom to play with the accompanying data.  That is a massive advantage over anything that you wear on your wrist.

I’ve just published a report on the hearables market which takes these new developments into account.  It shows a growing opportunity, even greater than I’d suggested two years ago, which could rise to sales of almost $45 billion in 2020.  You can download the report – The Market for Hearable Devices 2016-2020 here.

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