As the UK moves towards a more major lockdown, it’s becoming
apparent that this will not be a short-term disruption. Imperial College have published their
modelling plans, on which the UK strategy has been based and it’s clear
there is no quick fix. The Coronacrisis looks
set to be with us for the next twelve to eighteen months.
It’s a hundred years since the Spanish flu pandemic, for
which society had no medical solution.
The result was that millions died around the world, as the best that medical
science could do was to alleviate the symptoms of the dying. Since then, medical science has progressed to
the point that people expect it to save them this time around. The unfortunate truth is that we have no
drugs or vaccine available and it will probably be eighteen months before we
do. Until then, all we can do to limit
the spread is suppression, i.e. keeping people apart to reduce the number of
infections.
Where we have made advances is in the technology to treat
those who progress to secondary infections which are resulting in the death
toll. Again, we have no pharmaceutical
cure, but we can use ventilators on Intensive Care Units which can save many
patients. Not all, as anyone with
underlying health issues is likely to succumb.
The following chart, based on US
stats from Statista shows the percentage of patients who need intensive
care after hospital admission, broken down for different age ranges. It also shows the mortality rate. If you are young or healthy, ventilators have
a big effect on survival rate.
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