The energy industry has got a new religion – that of the Negawatt. Over the past decade it’s gone from a small following to becoming the new Messiah of capacity planning. It’s one of the few things where utilities and regulators come to worship at the same shrine. In fact they like it so much, they’re happy for an increasing number of consumers to pay for it. The only problem is that like other faith based beliefs, no-one really knows whether it exists or if it delivers what it promises.
If the negawatt is new to you, it’s a very neat scheme. The theory goes that if you can persuade consumers to use less energy, then you need to build fewer new power stations. Each kWh of energy saved is a negawatt (suggesting its name was coined by a marketing person, rather than someone who understood the difference between power and energy). Hence each negawatt achieved means less generating capacity is required to support demand. As power stations are expensive to build and operate, lots of negawatts are an attractive prospect as they represent an effective reduction in the need for new power stations, or the opportunity to put off building them. In other words negawatts mean utilities save money, which should be reflected in lower energy bills for consumers.
As it appears that this is so obviously a win-win concept, regulators have increasingly been willing to support what are called Ratepayer Funded Energy Efficiency Schemes. These allow energy suppliers to increase the cost a user pays for a unit of energy on the condition that the suppliers use this extra revenue to promote energy efficiency schemes which reduce consumption. If that sounds a bit Ponzi-like, it is. But in the short term, if it works, everyone should win. Consumers pay more per unit of electricity, but use less, so save overall. Utilities need to invest less, so future energy price rises should be contained, but the rate increase keeps their profits up. And as less energy is used, CO2 emissions are reduced, keeping the regulator and Mother Earth happy.
But does it work? In areas where these schemes operate, consumption has gone down, so negawatt proponents claim it’s effective. But energy usage has also gone down elsewhere. Which begs the question of whether we are measuring a real effect or not? Has the siren song of the negawatt befuddled both utilities and regulators, removing their ability to make rational judgements? In the US, billions of dollars are being spent on these schemes, whilst in the UK, DECC has built its justification for smart metering on the same unproven promise of jam tomorrow. So how do we separate belief from reality?