This year at CES – the market defining Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, the general consensus was that 2014 would be the year when wearable technology took off. There were some dissenting views – some thought it would be the year of Home Automation, particularly when Google went and splashed out $3.2billion for Nest, whilst some felt that maybe the Internet of Things would move from being a playground for geeks to a mainstream business. But if you look at what is actually going into production, it looks like wearables was the best bet. That was reinforced at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona. Phones and hardware were distinctly passé, the excitement was in what you could wear.
The reason the industry is having this debate is that it’s entering new territory. It’s generally agreed that we are in the post-PC era. Whilst PCs and laptops aren’t dead, they’re a declining market. It’s a long time since anything happened that made people go out and buy a new laptop. Most people don’t change their laptops any more. They wait for them to die and them replace them, just like light bulbs and fridges. Smartphones are facing the same fate. It’s no longer cool for most people to have a new smartphone and there is increasingly little to differentiate between them except price. They’ve reached that plateau where the only thing for manufacturers to do is to make them cheaper and try to saturate the market. Even tablets are entering the same territory, with Android tablets turning them from must-have accessory into commodities.
It’s a problem both for big brand names and also for the ODMs and factories which are churning them out. The latter are desperate to find the “next big thing” to the point that they’re courting new startups for small scale production runs which they would not have countenanced a few years ago. Wearables are the top of the list as the next desirable product. The question is whether that reflects reality, or whether the industry is at risk of believing its own PR?